Tender Price Indicator Q1 2018

Snapshot: UK prospects for construction growth remain subdued for 2018. 

Prospects for growth remain limited with the post-Brexit horizon still developing, making medium and long-term forecasting more difficult to formulate.

Our forecast for UK average tender price inflation remains flat at an average 1% in 2018.

We have downgraded our 2018 forecasts for some UK regions, with the exception of Greater London and South East which have increased to 1% and 0.5% growth respectively to reflect the market demand we are seeing.

Growth continues into 2019 with London and South East up 0.5% and the rest of the UK broadly flat at 1%. In the longer term assuming a clear agreement with the EU on future trading and continued construction demand, we are currently forecasting a return to long term average inflation levels in 2022.

MACRO ECONOMICS

The influence of higher import costs due to the weaker pound is  thought to have peaked, the recent rally in sterling is helping, albeit pressure is still being felt in rising oil prices. 

Gardiner & Theobald - 1802 Tpi 1 Q 2018 Infographics 05
Gardiner & Theobald - 1802 Tpi 1 Q 2018 Infographics 06

INPUT COSTS

The majority of indicators for building costs continued to show increases over the 12 months to the end of 2017 with housing materials dominating demand and price rises.

Gardiner & Theobald - 1802 Tpi 1 Q 2018 Infographics 07
Gardiner & Theobald - 1802 Tpi 1 Q 2018 Infographics 08

Read the full report and in-depth analysis in our TPI Q1 2018.  

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